Tuesday, July 05, 2005

Dennis Aims at New Orleans


at200504_model
Originally uploaded by Joe Gremlin.
It's already the busiest hurricane season on record, the earliest for 4 named storms. The storm that's in the gulf now won't be much, it's a typical early season gulf storm, but Dennis is going to be bad unless interference from hispaniola and cuba cut it down to size. This model shows it heading straight for New Orleans, but my Grandma always said that 'hurricanes don't hit New Orleans before September' , which might sound specious until you realize that one of the above models is based on historical paths.

It's more likely that it will continue west once it enters the gulf and hit Texas. Good for New Orleans, bad for me because now I'm in Texas.

Get ready for the real storm though, as pundits begin to squawk "Global
Warming" like the seaguls in Finding Nemo ("mine, mine"). This can be readily disproven at junkscience.com, where they have good links to graphs put out by the hurricane center that show the 30 year cycle that hurricane activity follows. 1930's to 60's was busy, 60's to 90's was slower, now it is picking up again, and it is not necessarily due to global
warming. ("Mine, mine")

I'd guess that the reason it is the busiest on record is that the last time it was this busy there were no satellites to image these non-land affecting storms. The first storm imaged by satellite was hurricane Anna in 1961. The last high in activity was ending just as satellite photography became
possible.

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